Due to escalating tension between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the oil supply directed to neighboring countries across Asia, Europe, and Africa is doomed to experience shortage and price hikes. The cause for the sudden rise of prices stems from the U.S.-Israeli missile strikes and bombing attacks that destroyed Iran’s military bases and cities last February 28, 2026, which resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, alongside several senior regime officials. 

As a response, Iran launched its retaliation. It began targeting the ally countries of the U.S. which include: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Jordan, Cyprus, and Iraq where the military locations, oil and gas installations, and civilian areas of the country were located. 

The failed negotiations regarding the Tehran Nuclear Programme triggered the situation. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Iran had “rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions” which led to the “massive and ongoing military operation” to initiate. Both Israel and the U.S. claim that Iran still seeks to have nuclear weapons but Iran debunks the allegation right away because Iranian nuclear talks were close to a breakthrough, which means “Iran will never have nuclear material that will create a bomb.”

Iran is known as one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers— but due to rising tension and the casualties from the attacks, it can disrupt global trades of gas and oil supply that are usually facilitated around the world. Oil and gas facilities in Middle East countries were disrupted by Iranian drones and missiles. Also, tankers near the Strait of Hormuz are attacked by Iran’s sea vessels. 

The Strait of Hormuz serves as a crucial narrow passageway that transports oil and gas products around different countries of the world including the Philippines. 20% of global oil and gas supplies travel through  this strait and its sudden closure can weaken global trade.

The obstruction of transporting oil and gas products eventually affected the neighboring countries that benefited from it. Prices of oil and gas have now increased because of the continuous conflicts in the Middle East. 

In the Philippines, public transportations, especially jeepney drivers, are severely affected upon the rise of oil prices. As a result, the Philippine government, specifically spearheaded by the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) responded with a distribution of ₱5,000 cash aid for public transportation drivers across the country. 

However, IBON Foundation Executive Director, Sonny Africa, has expressed that the financial assistance provided by the government is not enough. There are about 2.2M transport workers in the country and if they were to give 360,000 people, only 1.7M cash aid can be given. Africa added that the amount is not just for the transport workers.

Recently, the Department of Energy (DOE) released the following estimation of increase in fuel prices for the period between March 17-23, 2026. Oil companies have advised another round of price hike amid the previous hike to take effect in the upcoming week. 

Diesel: ₱20.40 to ₱23.90 per liter

Gasoline: ₱12.90 to ₱16.60 per liter

Kerosene: ₱6.90 to ₱8.90 per liter

The supply of oil and gas products in the country can only last for at least two months, which is why, several transport groups like Manibela, Piston, and non-governmental organizations are calling for the abolishment of excise tax charges, ₱1 fare hike, and the oil deregulation law of 1998. 

If the ongoing situation continues for the next few months, Filipinos’ living conditions can be at risk as prices of basic commodities could also increase.